Wednesday, September 9, 2009

HR's Unexpected Encounter: The Black Swan

Taleb defines Black Swan Events as the High Impact, Hard to Predict & Rare Events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations. He substantiates by stating that almost all consequential events in history came from the unexpected.

In our land of business, the irony of the organizational lives lies in the fact that despite having a high degree of impossibility, these bombs (events) do explode and the sound of the detonation is far & wide. The coverage is huge enough to injure even those that were securely packed in the cosiness of their houses.

Owing to the uncertainty & unexpectedness of such shocks, most population may adopt the ‘If we can’t predict, we can’t resolve’ attitude. However, the need of the hour is to shun traditional statistical probability predictions & be prepared nonetheless. You can’t expect the enemy to announce its arrival & wait for you to graciously accept the invitation of the disaster planned out for you.
Proponents have suggested that the business strategy should be agile enough to take on new unpredictable challenges anytime. The business strategy should undergo enough tests & hence be certified shock proof.

HR having claimed a strategic role, the position of a business partner, and the responsibility of change management processes across organizations owes a major role to the situation analysis and hence assistance in providing a solution for the same. The Human Capital Management Processes need to be redefined and structured in such fashion that they make the system bullet proof.

The organizational capabilities should be defined to promote a culture that supports the cause of change management, risk management & encourages a forward outlook to problem solving, a culture that would be analogous to innovation management. The anchor competencies that support the existence of the organizational capabilities should also be particular such cause.

Manpower Planning should be in tandem with the business plans & expected/unexpected uncertainties.
During the recruitment & selection process, an organization could look at effectively using tools like the Competency Based Interviewing to ensure that the pool of talent that they bring into the organization already possesses this mindset & skills that they are intending to advertise and adopt.
In their attempt to ensure diversity is well managed they should look at picking diverse mindsets to encourage an atmosphere which would bring in diverse ideas and approaches to tackle an impossible occurrence.

The Performance Management System needs to agile enough to enjoy the possibility of alteration due to the uncertain nature of business. So in case of a hiccup, the objectives can be tailored as required instead of having people run after targets which may have become meaningless at that point in time. Metrics require to be accordingly aligned as well.
As BF Skinner has propagated, behaviours/ actions which help our cause should be rewarded such that the occurrence is oft repeated.

The Learning & Development team could look at aiding the existing talent base to acquire the necessary skill sets by providing them with the requisite platforms. This could include behavioural workshops, cross functional workshops, structured mentoring, and ongoing pupation of technical skills.
The knowledge management system should be so rock solid that it acts as a protection shield against the uncertain enemy.

Signing off with: “Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”-John Allen Paulos